2015 Oscar Predictions From Robert J. Butler

Preview

This years Oscars are the most uncertain I have witnessed in years, if you go to numerous  publications, the predictions are all over the map.  "Boyhood" was the clear front-runner  for Best Picture for the longest time, winning numerous critics' group top prizes and earning the Best Motion Picture--Drama. However it lost the PGA and SAG top prizes to it's rival "Birdman", and both of those films have to go up against the public darling "American Sniper". It seems like "Boyhood" is losing momonetum, "American Sniper" is just too divided and controversial, which leads me to think "Birdman" will walk away with the  top prize. Often Hollywood loves awarding films about the industry, remember "The Artist" in 2011? Overall this is the most unpredictable Oscar race I have seen since 1998, where "Shakespeare in Love" won the top prize over "Saving Private Ryan." 

Successful Track Record of Predicting Winners

Nominations are listed below in alphabetical order, along with my predictions listed below. Last year I got 24/25 nominations right, and I won the top prize on Awardsdaily.com and won all the nominated films on blu-ray. How well will I fair this time around?

2015 Oscar Winner Predictions from Robert J. Butler

Best motion picture of the year

“American Sniper” Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper and Peter  Morgan, Producers

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and  James W. Skotchdopole, Producers

“Boyhood” Richard Linklater and Cathleen Sutherland, Producers

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales and Jeremy Dawson, Producers

“The Imitation Game” Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky and Teddy Schwarzman, Producers

“Selma” Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, Producers

“The Theory of Everything” Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce and Anthony McCarten, Producers

“Whiplash” Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook and David Lancaster, Producers

Will Win: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Could Win: Boyhood
Should Win: Boyhood
Shoulda Been Here: Leviathan, Winter Sleep, The Immigrant, Under the Skin

Achievement in directing

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
“Boyhood” Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Bennett Miller
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Wes Anderson
“The Imitation Game” Morten Tyldum

Will Win: "Boyhood" Richard Linklater
Could win: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Should Win: "Boyhood" Richard Linklater
Shoulda Been Here: "Leviathan" Andrey Zvyagintsev, "Under the Skin" Jonathan Glazer, "Winter Sleep" Nuri Bilge Ceylan

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Steve Carell in “Foxcatcher”
Bradley Cooper in “American Sniper”
Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Imitation Game”
Michael Keaton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Eddie Redmayne in “The Theory of Everything”

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne in "The Theory of Everything"
Could Win: Michael Keaton in "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virgue of Ignorance)"
Should Win: Steve Carell in "Foxcatcher"
Should Been Here: Jake Gyllenhaal in "Nightcrawler", Guy Pearce in "The Rover", Timothy  Spall in "Mr. Turner"

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Marion Cotillard in “Two Days, One Night”
Felicity Jones in “The Theory of Everything”
Julianne Moore in “Still Alice”
Rosamund Pike in “Gone Girl”
Reese Witherspoon in “Wild”

Will Win: Julianne Moore in "Still Alice"
Should Win: Julianne Moore in "Still Alice"
Could Win: No Contest, Moore owns this.
Shoulda Been Here: Marion Cotillard in "The Immigrant"

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Robert Duvall in “The Judge”
Ethan Hawke in “Boyhood”
Edward Norton in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Mark Ruffalo in “Foxcatcher”
J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash”

Will Win: J.K. Simmons in "Whiplash"
Should Win: J.K. Simmons in "Whiplash"
Could Win: No Contest, Simmons own this. 
Shoulda Been Here: Robert Pattinson in "The Rover"

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Patricia Arquette in “Boyhood”
Laura Dern in “Wild”
Keira Knightley in “The Imitation Game”
Emma Stone in “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)”
Meryl Streep in “Into the Woods”

Will Win: Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood"
Should Win: Patricia Arquette in "Boyhood".
Could Win: Laura Dern in "Wild"
Shoulda Been Here: Jessica Chastain in "A Most Violent Year", Renee Russo in  "Nightcrawler", Melisa Sözen in "Winter Sleep"

Adapted Screenplay

“American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
“The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
“Inherent Vice” Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Theory of Everything” Screenplay by Anthony McCarten
“Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle

Will Win: “The Imitation Game” Written by Graham Moore
Should Win: “Whiplash” Written by Damien Chazelle
Could Win: “American Sniper” Written by Jason Hall
Shoulda Been Here: "The Drop" Written by Dennis Lehane, "Gone Girl" Written by Gillian Flynn, "Under the Skin" Written by Walter Campbell & Jonathan Glazer

Original screenplay

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
“Boyhood” Written by Richard Linklater
“Foxcatcher” Written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Screenplay by Wes Anderson; Story by Wes Anderson & Hugo Guinness
“Nightcrawler” Written by Dan Gilroy

Will Win: “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo
Should Win: “Boyhood" Written by Richard Linklater
Could Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel" Written by Wes Anderson
Shoulda Been Here: "Leviathan" Written by Oleg Negin, Andrey Zvyagintsev, "Winter Sleep" Written by Nuri Bilge Ceylan, Ebru Ceylan

Best animated feature film of the year

“Big Hero 6” Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli
“The Boxtrolls” Anthony Stacchi, Graham Annable and Travis Knight
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold
“Song of the Sea” Tomm Moore and Paul Young
“The Tale of the Princess Kaguya” Isao Takahata and Yoshiaki Nishimura

Will Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2"
Should Win: "How to Train Your Dragon 2" 
Could Win: "Big Hero 6" 
Shoulda Been Here: "The Lego Movie"

Achievement in cinematography

“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Emmanuel Lubezki
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Robert Yeoman
“Ida” Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lenczewski
“Mr. Turner” Dick Pope
“Unbroken” Roger Deakins

Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki in "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki in "Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)"
Could Win: "Unbroken" Roger Deakins
Shoulda Been Here: "Leviathan" Mikhail Krichman, "Winter Sleep" Gökhan Tiryaki

Achievement in costume design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
“Inherent Vice” Mark Bridges
“Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
“Maleficent” Anna B. Sheppard and Jane Clive
“Mr. Turner” Jacqueline Durran

Will Win: “Into the Woods” Colleen Atwood
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
Could Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” Milena Canonero
Shoulda Been Here: "The Immigrant" Patricia Norris

Best documentary feature

“CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
“Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
“Last Days in Vietnam” Rory Kennedy and Keven McAlester
“The Salt of the Earth” Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado and David Rosier
“Virunga” Orlando von Einsiedel and Joanna Natasegara

Will Win: “CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
Should Win: “CitizenFour” Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky
Could Win: “Finding Vivian Maier” John Maloof and Charlie Siskel
Shoulda Been Here: "Jodorowsky's Dune" Frank Pavich, "Life Itself" Steve James

Best documentary short subject

“Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
“Joanna” Aneta Kopacz
“Our Curse” Tomasz Sliwinski and Maciej Slesicki
“The Reaper (La Parka)” Gabriel Serra Arguello
“White Earth” J. Christian Jensen

Will Win: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
Should Win: “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry
Could Win: “Joanna” Aneta Kopacz

Achievement in film editing

“American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
“Boyhood” Sandra Adair
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Barney Pilling
“The Imitation Game” William Goldenberg
“Whiplash” Tom Cross

Will Win: “Boyhood” Sandra Adair
Should Win: “Boyhood” Sandra Adair
Could Win: “American Sniper” Joel Cox and Gary D. Roach
Shoulda Been Here: "Gone Girl" Kirk Baxter, "Interstellar" Lee Smith

Best foreign language film of the year

“Ida” Poland
“Leviathan” Russia
“Tangerines” Estonia
“Timbuktu” Mauritania
“Wild Tales” Argentina

Will Win: “Ida" Poland
Should Win: “Leviathan" Russia 
Could Win: “Leviathan” Russia
Shoulda Been Here: "Winter Sleep" Turkey

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

“Foxcatcher” Bill Corso and Dennis Liddiard
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and David White

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should Win: “Guardians of the Galaxy”
Could Win: “Guardians of the Galazy"
Shoulda Been Here: "Into the Woods" Annabelle McMahon

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Desplat
“The Imitation Game” Alexandre Desplat
“Interstellar” Hans Zimmer
“Mr. Turner” Gary Yershon
“The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson

Will Win: “The Theory of Everything” Jóhann Jóhannsson
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel” Alexandre Despla“
Could Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Shoulda Been Here:  "Gone Girl" Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, "Nightcrawler", James Howard Newton, "Under the Skin"  Micachu

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

“Everything Is Awesome” from “The Lego Movie”
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“Glory” from “Selma”
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from “Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me”
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Lost Stars” from “Begin Again” Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois

Will Win: “Glory” from “Selma”
Should Win: “Grateful” from “Beyond the Lights”
Could Win: “Lost Stars” from “Begin Again”
Shoulda Been Here:  "The Hanging Tree" from "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 1" Music and  Lyric by James  Newton Howard & Jennifer Lawrence

Achievement in production design

“The Grand Budapest Hotel” Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“The Imitation Game” Production Design: Maria Djurkovic; Set Decoration: Tatiana Macdonald
“Interstellar” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
“Into the Woods” Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
“Mr. Turner” Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Charlotte Watts

Will Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Should Win: “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
Could Win: "The Imitation Game"
Shoulda Been Here:  "The Immigrant" Happy Massee

Best animated short film

“The Bigger Picture” Daisy Jacobs and Christopher Hees
“The Dam Keeper” Robert Kondo and Dice Tsutsumi
“Feast” Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed
“Me and My Moulton” Torill Kove
“A Single Life” Joris Oprins

Will Win: “The Bigger Picture”
Should Win: “Feast"
Could Win: "Feast"

Best live action short film

“Aya” Oded Binnun and Mihal Brezis
“Boogaloo and Graham” Michael Lennox and Ronan Blaney
“Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)” Hu Wei and Julien Féret
“Parvaneh” Talkhon Hamzavi and Stefan Eichenberger
“The Phone Call” Mat Kirkby and James Lucas

Will Win: "Boogaloo and Graham"
Should Win: “The Phone Call"
Could Win: "The Phone Call"

Achievement in sound editing

“American Sniper” Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Martín Hernández and Aaron Glascock
“The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies” Brent Burge and Jason Canovas
“Interstellar” Richard King
“Unbroken” Becky Sullivan and Andrew DeCristofaro

Will Win: “American Sniper”
Should Win: “Interstellar”
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Shoulda Been Here: "Guardians of the Galaxy"

Achievement in sound mixing

“American Sniper” John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin
“Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and Thomas Varga
“Interstellar” Gary A. Rizzo, Gregg Landaker and Mark Weingarten
“Unbroken” Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño and David Lee
“Whiplash” Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley

Will Win: “American Sniper”
Should Win: “Whiplash”
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Shoulda Been Here:  "Guardians of the Galaxy"

Achievement in visual effects

“Captain America: The Winter Soldier” Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick
“Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett and Erik Winquist
“Guardians of the Galaxy” Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner and Paul  Corbould
“Interstellar” Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher
“X-Men: Days of Future Past” Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie and Cameron  Waldbauer

Will Win: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
Should Win: “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes”
Could Win: "Interstellar"
Shoulda Been Here:  "Godzilla"

 

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